Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Identifieur interne : 000481 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000480; suivant : 000482Potential impact of seasonal forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.
Auteurs : Richard A. Neher [Suisse] ; Robert Dyrdak [Suède] ; Valentin Druelle [Suisse] ; Emma B. Hodcroft [Suisse] ; Jan Albert [Suède]Source :
- Swiss medical weekly [ 1424-3997 ] ; 2020.
Descripteurs français
- KwdFr :
- Chine (épidémiologie), Humains, Incidence, Infections à coronavirus (), Infections à coronavirus (transmission), Infections à coronavirus (épidémiologie), Modèles théoriques, Pandémies (), Pneumopathie virale (), Pneumopathie virale (transmission), Pneumopathie virale (épidémiologie), Prévalence, Prévision, Saisons.
- MESH :
- Wicri :
- geographic : République populaire de Chine.
English descriptors
- KwdEn :
- China (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (epidemiology), Coronavirus Infections (prevention & control), Coronavirus Infections (transmission), Forecasting, Humans, Incidence, Models, Theoretical, Pandemics (statistics & numerical data), Pneumonia, Viral (epidemiology), Pneumonia, Viral (prevention & control), Pneumonia, Viral (transmission), Prevalence, Seasons.
- MESH :
- geographic , epidemiology : China.
- epidemiology : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- prevention & control : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- statistics & numerical data : Pandemics.
- transmission : Coronavirus Infections, Pneumonia, Viral.
- Forecasting, Humans, Incidence, Models, Theoretical, Prevalence, Seasons.
Abstract
A novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) first detected in Wuhan, China, has spread rapidly since December 2019, causing more than 100,000 confirmed infections and 4000 fatalities (as of 10 March 2020). The outbreak has been declared a pandemic by the WHO on Mar 11, 2020. Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterise our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions. While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems.
DOI: 10.4414/smw.2020.20224
PubMed: 32176808
Affiliations:
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The outbreak has been declared a pandemic by the WHO on Mar 11, 2020. Here, we explore how seasonal variation in transmissibility could modulate a SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Data from routine diagnostics show a strong and consistent seasonal variation of the four endemic coronaviruses (229E, HKU1, NL63, OC43) and we parameterise our model for SARS-CoV-2 using these data. The model allows for many subpopulations of different size with variable parameters. Simulations of different scenarios show that plausible parameters result in a small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere and a larger peak in winter 2020/2021. Variation in transmission and migration rates can result in substantial variation in prevalence between regions. While the uncertainty in parameters is large, the scenarios we explore show that transient reductions in the incidence rate might be due to a combination of seasonal variation and infection control efforts but do not necessarily mean the epidemic is contained. Seasonal forcing on SARS-CoV-2 should thus be taken into account in the further monitoring of the global transmission. The likely aggregated effect of seasonal variation, infection control measures, and transmission rate variation is a prolonged pandemic wave with lower prevalence at any given time, thereby providing a window of opportunity for better preparation of health care systems.</div></front></TEI><affiliations><list><country><li>Suisse</li><li>Suède</li></country><region><li>Svealand</li></region><settlement><li>Stockholm</li></settlement></list><tree><country name="Suisse"><noRegion><name sortKey="Neher, Richard A" sort="Neher, Richard A" uniqKey="Neher R" first="Richard A" last="Neher">Richard A. Neher</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Druelle, Valentin" sort="Druelle, Valentin" uniqKey="Druelle V" first="Valentin" last="Druelle">Valentin Druelle</name><name sortKey="Hodcroft, Emma B" sort="Hodcroft, Emma B" uniqKey="Hodcroft E" first="Emma B" last="Hodcroft">Emma B. Hodcroft</name></country><country name="Suède"><region name="Svealand"><name sortKey="Dyrdak, Robert" sort="Dyrdak, Robert" uniqKey="Dyrdak R" first="Robert" last="Dyrdak">Robert Dyrdak</name></region><name sortKey="Albert, Jan" sort="Albert, Jan" uniqKey="Albert J" first="Jan" last="Albert">Jan Albert</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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